Whatever happens to the economy over the next few months and at the next general election, it’s clear that there will have to be public spending cuts in the years to come. Politicians from all sides will have to lead a debate on where and how the cuts should happen, and to what extent they are balanced by tax rises. With an election a matter of months away, party strategists will be agonising over how to play this traditionally divisive – and sometimes decisive – issue.
In recent elections the Labour party has successfully exploited the public’s fear that the faintest whiff of spending cuts means slashing vital services for ordinary people. But with public confidence in Labour’s ability to protect public having fallen away, it seems the Tories have decided to grasp the nettle and make the case for cuts.
Speaking in last weekend’s Guardian, Shadow Treasury Chief Secretary Philip Hammond admitted expecting to be the ‘ face on the nation’s dartboards’ if the Tories form the next government. He set out the prospect of tough action to stabilise the finances as the only way to save Britain’s public services and rebuild the economy for the long term.
So is it electoral suicide to set out the need for cuts, or refreshing honesty that the public will embrace?
Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index
Recent polling from Ipsos MORI shows that there is no public consensus on how best to rebalance the books, with people divided between maintaining spending and increasing taxes (38%), cutting spending on public services (29%), and doing nothing (31%). With over half (51%) not persuaded of the need to cut spending on services Hammond will have his work cut out to set out the need for tough action.
If cuts do have to happen, overseas aid and benefits are the public’s preferred sacrifices, but the vast majority (82%) think the NHS should be protected from cuts.
The NHS has always been a key election battleground, and one which has usually benefitted Labour, with public concerns that the Tory instinct is to cut or begin privatising their much loved institution. But, in the same way that Labour in ‘97 knew they had to win public confidence on economic management, the Tories know that this time they have to neutralise Labour’s traditional advantage on health. David Cameron may have disappointed some in his party when he pledged to offer real-terms increases in NHS spending and reject co-payments as a way to meet the rising demands of an aging population, but these latest figures reinforce the important status of the health service among the electorate.
Hammond knows he needs to tread carefully when it comes to tough action and the NHS, telling the Guardian that while the NHS, like all other public services, will have to become more efficient, it is different because the savings – and more – will have to be reinvested to meet the demographic pressures on the service.
As the public debate moves on from dealing with the here and now of the recession to rebuilding the economy and the election looms nearer there is lots to keep the party strategists busy.
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[...] As noted here previously, Cameron’s strategists know the NHS is a key election battleground. Convincing the public that the NHS is safe in their hands is a crucial part of their election strategy. [...]